Serena Williams’ Australian Open 2009 campaign is taking on an air of striking familiarity. It has almost been a case of seeing it unfold before it has actually happened – and while she still has one match to win before she can lay claim to the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup for the fourth time, the stars are very much aligning for a Williams victory.
There are a set of scenarios that inevitably seem to occur every time Williams triumphs at Melbourne Park.
If the year is an odd one, she goes on to win the tournament.
Her previous titles in Melbourne came in 2003, 2005 and 2007, and she is hot favourite to win her fourth consecutive odd-year Australian championship.
If inclement weather sees a roof closure, she goes on to win the tournament.
In 2003, a blistering day where the temperature reached 44 degrees forced the roof to remain firmly shut for the final between Williams and her sister Venus. Her 2005 and 2007 finals had to be contested indoors due to rainy weather.
If she has defeated an opponent after being behind in the scoreline, she goes on to win the tournament.
This trend began in the first round of the 2003 event, when Serena recovered from a set down and a precarious position in the second set to defeat Emilie Loit of France. In the semifinals, she came back from 5-1 down in the third set against Kim Clijsters, and even had two match points against her down 5-2.
In 2005, Serena saved three match points in her semifinal against Maria Sharapova to win 8-6 in the third set, before recovering from a set down to defeat Lindsay Davenport in the final. In 2007, Nadia Petrova had Williams on the ropes in the third round, serving for match up 6-1 5-3 – in a match played under a closed roof, no less – before the American came back to win in three sets.
The bad news for Williams’ opponent in the final, Dinara Safina, is that these scenarios have all featured in Serena’s 2009 tournament campaign.
They were beautifully illustrated in Williams’ quarterfinal match against Svetlana Kuznetsova. Searing heat caused the roof to close at the conclusion of the opening set, which the Russian had won. Despite Kuznetsova going on to serve for the match after leading 7-5 5-3, Williams reeled of 10 of the final 11 games for victory.
Serena must surely fancy her chances going into Saturday night’s final. It is the first time the women’s final has been staged in this prime-time television slot, suiting the spotlight-loving Williams down to the ground. She is also playing an opponent against whom she has won her last two matches in straight sets.
How can Safina break the trend that Williams has developed at Melbourne Park?
For one, she must take confidence out of her first victory over Serena last year in Berlin. Although the Russian said that result was not too relevant given the match was played on clay, it can be argued that the win – among several other big victories Safina claimed in a magical run to the German Open title – was the beginning of a career breakthrough that has continued here in Melbourne.
To prevent a roof closure, she must also pray for the current weather forecast to change – thundery showers sweeping across Melbourne are said to be a possibility for Saturday evening.
Safina’s attitude was that she would be focusing on her game and refusing to speculate on how she would fare against Williams. “Let’s see what’s going to [happen] on Saturday,” she said, simply.
But it may not be enough to stop the American, who is encouraged by the fact that Australian Open 2009 is shaping up rather similarly to her previously successful campaigns in Melbourne.
“Yeah, I hope so. I hope it’s a good omen,” she said.
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