The Melbourne Park computer, which determines the Australian Open draw, has given Serbia’s Jelena Jankovic the best possible chance of proving herself a worthy No. 1 in the rapidly changing hierarchy of women’s tennis.
Jankovic, a part-time Belgrade university student, riled a few of her rivals by being awarded the No. 1 spot in the wake of Justin Henin’s unexpected retirement and Maria Sharapova’s shoulder injury.
She achieved her ambition despite never having won a Grand Slam title. Another computer – one owned by the Women’s Tennis Association – found she was the most consistent women’s player over the last year, and deserved her eminent status for that reason alone.
Now, the Melbourne Park computer has given Jankovic a draw that should enable her to reach the semifinals without too much fuss.
Her most serious threats in the early rounds could come from Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli, the 2007 Wimbledon finalist, and Russia’s Nadia Petrova, who has reached the quarterfinals or better at all the majors, but has yet to make a final.
Bartoli, who is seeded 16th, plays with fine touch and a good sense of strategy, as Jankovic does herself, but lacks sufficient fitness. Petrova’s weakness is her temperament – the No. 10 seed occasionally becomes tight in a difficult situation.
Jankovic’s quarterfinal opponent is likely to be another Russian, seventh seed Vera Zvonareva, who in six previous visits to Melbourne has failed to pass the fourth round.
As has been often the case in recent years, Russians figure prominently in the draw, and none can be underestimated.
Jankovic’s semifinal opponent should she make that stage of the tournament may well be Dinara Safina, Marat’s little sister. This will be Safina’s seventh attempt to win the title, and never before has she been seeded as high as third.
Safina has never survived the first week at Melbourne Park, highlighting her vulnerability, but she is growing calmer and less erratic, perhaps helped by Marat’s encouragement. Her cost of living has dipped, too, because she smashes far fewer racquets these days ...
To make a rendezvous with Jankovic or Zvonareva, Safina may have to find a way past talented French youngster Alize Cornet and either fifth seed Ana Ivanovic of Serbia, or Denmark’s 18-year-old Caroline Wozniacki.
Ivanovic lost to Sharapova in the 2008 final, but then beat Safina in the French Open decider. She seems to have struggled for top form since then, handicapped occasionally by niggling injuries.
In the bottom half of the draw, there is the possibility of another clash between the Williams sisters. But it could only occur in the semifinals, and there are several good reasons it won’t happen at all.
One is that Serena, who is seeded second, could face a difficult early-round match against 18-year-old Victoria Azarenka of Belarus, the recent winner of the Brisbane title. Azarenka herself may have her work cut out in the third round against former champion Amelie Mauresmo of France.
Another danger for Serena could come from the 18-year-old Pole, Agnieszka Radwanska, a regular quarter-finalist in the majors, and soon surely a Grand Slam champion.
Time will tell whether Serena is fit enough to withstand these threats, though her slump against Russia’s Elena Dementieva at Sydney earlier this week did not inspire confidence.
Meanwhile, sister Venus, who has yet to win the Open in nine attempts, should be too powerful for any opponent in her quarter except possibly Dementieva. This will be the hard-hitting Russian’s 11th appearance at the Open, and she has reached the fourth round four times.
Accompanied as always by her mother, a schoolteacher by profession but a tennis coach for Elena’s sake, the world No. 4 has improved with experience and maturity.
Jankovic seems to have the ingredients to beat Safina in one semifinal, with Dementieva edging out Serena in the other. Jankovic should then consolidate her No. 1 status.
Alan Trengove has covered around 130 Grand Slam tournaments as a reporter and feature writer, and covered his first Australian championships in 1953.
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